Voyage(r) Update — 1/16/2021
When I began the Voyage(r) to the Cosmos series, it was a way to share my perspective and analysis with new and existing investors. The feedback has been overwhelmingly positive and sparked some good discussion among the community. And it seems, many are hungry for more. Luckily, I have whipped up a buffet of charts and hot takes to tide you over.
Could Voyager have started off 2021 any better? Business is booming! Thousands of new customers, hundreds of millions more in AUM, more coins added to the platform. It’s JANUARY 16th, for goodness’ sake. Can you imagine a company who is growing enormously fast and doesn’t go down when the market is volatile? What a novel concept. Let’s go through the data and show what’s been going on.
VGX Price and Value Update
VGX has been on an absolute tear over the last 10 days. It’s up over 8x in 12 days and leaving even the experts confused on how to explain the price appreciation. As laid out in Token Value & Investing, increasing user growth on a small supply can have explosive price action.
On Monday, Voyager announced a 25% increase in funded accounts over December just 10 DAYS into the month. Meaning, they are averaging 1k-1.5k new funded accounts a day. Looking at the VGX Metcalfe value chart through 12/31/2020, it shows the token was running about 25% token efficiency with an R2 of 68%.
Looking at January, VGX is running a token efficiency of 100% with an R2 of ~87%. This is quite an acceleration. The data says VGX has gotten a little ahead of its fundamental value as of this morning.
Even though the price is higher than the fundamental value today, look at how steep the funded account Metcalfe’s value line (Orange) is. We are likely only a few days to one week away from being back in line with value again. Remember that price is arbitrary and can be higher or lower at any given time. We should see price action slow down a bit over the next few weeks, but hey, this is crypto. I heard Alt-season was just getting started and the VGX supply is constrained at the moment.
VGX Address Update
The VGX Etherscan data has been quite impressive to watch. It used to be the entire days worth of transfers fit on the first couple of pages. Now, it doesn’t even contain the current hours’ worth of transfers. Unique token transfers has just exploded. Only matched by Nov 1, 2019, about the time the Ethos deal closed. This network activity shows how much demand outside of the US there is for VGX.
Look at the new addresses created in the last 10 days. Just WOW! This demand has had quite an impact on price and the reason why VGX is ahead of its current value today. These new addresses gobbled up over 11M tokens or almost 5% of current supply. How do you say BULLISH in other languages!?!
Breaking down the transfers by size, most of the transfers are in the 10 to 1k and 1k to 10 range. This demonstrates the large number of people wanting exposure to the token even though Voyager is not in their location yet.
Looking at the transfer amounts by size, there were only 2 days with significant 1M+ transfers. The majority of the network activity is smaller to medium sized which will help longer term price stability.
And more and more tokens are coming off exchanges. Another -5M tokens were removed in January. There has been almost 4,000 transfers, which matches month to date or what you usually see in 3 full months. Impressive!
Lastly, looking at the last time tokens moved, there are over 22M or 10% of supply being held tight (not moved since December 2019). This means these coins are out of circulation and further constraining supply. Since the end of November, just over ~4M of “old” coins moved (coins that hadn’t moved since December 2019). This was more than dwarfed by the new addresses buying coins ~11M of VGX.
VYGVF Price and Value Update
The end of last week marked some big news of a new equity round. Initially announced at $25M, the equity round updated a few hours later to $40M. This is some impressive demand (listen to Steve discuss Friday on Trade the Chain). Once the stock resumed trading, there was a ~10% sell off likely over the further dilution. Investors need to remember they are essentially invested in a pre-IPO company that happens to be public. Most investors never have the chance to invest this early on in a company. Explosive growth needs significant influxes of cash to maintain current growth rates.
Looking at the VYGVF Metcalfe’s Value, the stock is currently undervalued. It rose quickly, to about ~$4 toward the end of last year, to then level off for a bit. The pricing model shows VYGVF is trading at a 25% discount. Revenue for calendar Q1 2021 is going to blow people away, especially given the announcement of trading velocity increased substantially. Watch out for December earnings (in February). We could see the stock take off again.
And just like User growth, the line is steep for AUM Metcalfe’s value. The data says the stock is a bargain at the moment.
AUM — Digital Asset Break out
There was also some questions this week on what constitutes AUM for Voyager. AUM is all of the digital assets the company holds (yes VGX is included) plus any cash held for customers. Let’s look at the current model of digital asset allocation using historical SEDAR filings and then estimate December and January. Keep in mind there is some margin of error in this data given the last reported numbers were Sept 2020.
Another way to look at this data is to control for price appreciation. This gives a sense of how digital assets are added to the average new customer account. At the end of 2020, it looked like new accounts were averaging ~$2.5k in funds. Now, it looks like average new customer funds has increased to ~$5k. This has very positive impacts on VYGVF and also VGX.
Lastly, let’s look at how AUM is growing. The model shows December and January growing primarily through price appreciation. January shows new customer assets equated to 25%-30% of new AUM. One advantage I called out in the Voyage(r) to Cosmos series was Voyager is a network business holding network assets. This creates explosive increases in AUM that benefits stock holders and to some degree token holders. This is another reason why the stock is trading at a discount to value.
What a week! VGX storms on the scene and takes crypto by storm just a few weeks into 2021. This will be the year Voyager becomes a household name. Today, VGX is ahead of its fundamental value. The data suggests the user growth will catch up within a few days or 1 week. Huge demand for VGX outside of the US is creating supply shortages. The stock is currently undervalued by ~25% and is a great place to add fresh capital.
Hope you enjoyed the update! If you like what you read, take the time to clap for the article below or like it on Twitter. If you have thoughts, feel free to add a comment below to the article or on Twitter.
If you are not a current Voyager customer and would like to start investing in crypto with Voyager, download the app and trade $100 to get $25 of free Bitcoin. Use code AFK8SG or this link to claim your BTC
Disclosure: I am a current VGX token holder. This is not financial advice. This article is for informational purposes only. Do your own research or seek out the professional advice from a financial advisor.